Spain vs England prediction for the Nations League on 15 November: team news, H2H, tactical analysis and our best tips for the Group A3 decider in Madrid.
Spain vs England Prediction: Can England End Spain’s 43-Game Unbeaten Run?
| Predicted score: Spain 2-1 England
Best markets: Over 1.5 goals and Spain or Draw (1X) Team news: Lamine Yamal and Mikel Oyarzabal are available for Spain. England are short of defenders, with Marc Guéhi, Ezri Konsa, John Stones, Djed Spence and Nico O’Reilly all listed as missing as of Friday. Match: Sunday, November 15, 2026, 19:45 GMT (20:45 in Madrid and Nigeria), Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, UEFA Nations League Group A3 |
Spain host England in Madrid on Sunday in the final round of the 2026/27 Nations League group stage. Top spot in Group A3 is on the line.
GlobalPredict gives Spain a narrow edge, they’ve won all 5 group games, enjoy home advantage, and beat England 3–2 at Wembley back in September. A draw is enough for first place.
England are not to be underestimated. They’ve won 4 of their 5 group matches and scored 16 goals, they have the firepower to trouble Spain. But they know only a win will do.
Goals look like the likeliest outcome. The first meeting finished 3–2. Spain have conceded in 4 of their 5 group games and England have scored in every match. Expect both teams to create chances in Madrid.
Both teams have already qualified for the quarter-finals. Spain have 15 points from 15, England have 12, and the group winner will be decided in Madrid on Sunday.
Spain vs England Match Details
| Detail | Information |
| Competition | UEFA Nations League, League A, Group A3, Matchday 6 (final league-phase round) |
| Date | Sunday, November 15, 2026 |
| Kick-off | 19:45 GMT (20:45 in Madrid and Nigeria) |
| Venue | Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid |
| Home team | Spain (managed by Luis de la Fuente) |
| Away team | England (managed by Thomas Tuchel) |
| TV | ITV1 (UK) |
GlobalPredict’s Spain vs England Predictions
| Market | Selection | Est. Probability | Confidence | Risk Level |
| Double Chance | Spain or Draw (1X) | 76% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Low-Medium |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | 65% | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Medium |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes | 61% | ⭐⭐⭐ | Medium |
| Match Result | Spain Win | 52% | ⭐⭐⭐ | Medium-High |
| Correct Score | Spain 2–1 England | Not stated | ⭐⭐ | High |
Spain vs England Team News
Spain Team News
Spain head into this fixture after a 2–0 away win against Czechia on 12 November. Álex Baena scored from the penalty spot in the 39th minute and Marc Pubill added a second in stoppage time. The result stretched their perfect Group A3 record to five wins from five.
There is positive news on Lamine Yamal and Mikel Oyarzabal. Manager Luis de la Fuente confirmed both were expected to rejoin the squad and train on Friday. Yamal missed the Czechia match with a minor knee issue while Oyarzabal remained in San Sebastián for the birth of his second child.
Rodri, Dani Olmo, Eric García and Víctor Muñoz were not included in the squad for these November fixtures.
Yamal and Oyarzabal would add extra attacking options if available but neither their selection nor their starting spots are confirmed until the official team sheet is released.
England Team News
England sealed their place in the Nations League quarter-finals with a 2–1 win over Croatia at Wembley on 12 November. Morgan Rogers opened the scoring on 24 minutes. Petar Sučić levelled for Croatia in the 59th minute, before Harry Kane converted a 64th-minute penalty to secure the win. The appearance also marked Kane’s 126th cap, making him England’s most-capped men’s player of all time.
Defender Marc Guéhi withdrew injured and Dan Burn was called up as his replacement. Ezri Konsa has been following an individual training plan but was expected to return to full sessions before travelling to Spain, his match-day status remains unconfirmed.
Thomas Tuchel has strong attacking options to choose from, including Kane, Jude Bellingham, Anthony Gordon and Morgan Rogers. England’s display against Croatia showed this frontline can create chances, though their defensive shape will face a stern test against Spain’s possession and movement.
Spain vs England Tactical Analysis
England’s Defence Against Spain’s Early Pressure
In September, Yamal won the ball from Guéhi and scored inside two minutes, and a mistake by O’Reilly gave Spain another goal. Neither defender is available this time, so England will field a backline with less experience together against the same attack. Spain’s quick starts are the first thing to watch.
Spain’s Defence Is Not Watertight
Spain have conceded in four of their five group games and kept just one clean sheet, in Prague on Thursday. Their goals-against column (5 in five games) is modest, but England have scored 16 in their five group games and have scored in every one.
England’s Chance Creation
England created 2.8 expected goals (xG) to Croatia’s 1.2 on Thursday, so the 2-1 scoreline was not a fluke. Kane also played a diagonal pass to Jude Bellingham in the build-up to Morgan Rogers’ opening goal. If England get Kane and Bellingham into good areas, they can score against anyone.
What Happened in the Last Spain vs England Match?
Spain won 3-2 at Wembley on September 26. It was a game of two halves for England: they came back from a goal down to lead, then lost control after a missed penalty.
| Minute | Event | Score |
| 2′ | Lamine Yamal scores for Spain | 0–1 |
| 36′ | Anthony Gordon scores for England | 1–1 |
| 40′ | Harry Kane scores for England | 2–1 |
| 54′ | Kane’s penalty hits the crossbar | 2–1 |
| 60′ | Álex Baena scores for Spain | 2–2 |
| 74′ | Mikel Oyarzabal scores for Spain | 2–3 |
Spain vs England: Group A3 Standings Before Matchday 6
| Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| Spain | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 15 |
| England | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 12 |
| Croatia | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 16 | −11 | 3 |
| Czechia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 12 | −10 | 0 |
The top two in each League A group reach the quarter-finals. Spain need a draw or a win to finish first. England must win, and a win would put the two sides level on 15 points. Thomas Tuchel put it simply: “The winner takes it all.
Spain vs England H2H: Last Five Meetings
Spain have the edge in recent meetings, with three wins to England’s one and one draw.
| Date | Competition | Result |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Nations League | England 2–3 Spain |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Euro 2024 Final | Spain 2–1 England |
| Oct 15, 2018 | Nations League | Spain 2–3 England |
| Sep 8, 2018 | Nations League | England 1–2 Spain |
| Nov 15, 2016 | Friendly | England 2–2 Spain |
Spain vs England by the Numbers
| Metric | Spain | England |
| Group A3 record | 5W, 0D, 0L | 4W, 0D, 1L |
| Goals scored / conceded | 14 / 5 | 16 / 4 |
| Group games with a clean sheet | 1 of 5 | 3 of 5 |
| Group games where they scored | 5 of 5 | 5 of 5 |
| Group games with Over 1.5 goals | 5 of 5 | 5 of 5 |
| Group games with Over 2.5 goals | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 |
| Group games with both teams scoring | 4 of 5 | 2 of 5 |
Spain vs England Prediction: The Five Markets Explained
Double Chance: Spain or Draw (1X). Spain need only a draw to finish top, and they have not lost in 43 matches. England’s depleted defence adds to the case. The risk is that Spain have conceded in four of five group games and England have scored in every match, so the price matters.
Over 1.5 Goals: Over. All ten group games played by the two teams have produced at least two goals. It is the safest goals angle on the card.
Over 2.5 Goals: Over. Each side has gone over 2.5 in four of five group games, and the first meeting had five goals. The thin edge is why confidence is moderate, not high.
Both Teams to Score: Yes. England have scored in all five group games, and Spain have too. Spain’s record of conceding makes it likely England find a goal. Kane also missed a penalty in the first meeting, so England had chances to score more.
Correct Score: Spain 2-1 England. It fits the first meeting’s pattern and Spain’s narrow edge, but correct-score picks carry high variance, so treat it as a lean, not a bet.
Spain vs England Prediction: FAQ
What time does Spain vs England kick off?
Kick-off is at 19:45 GMT on Sunday, November 15, 2026. That is 20:45 in Madrid and in Nigeria.
Will Lamine Yamal play against England?
Spain coach Luis de la Fuente has confirmed Yamal is available after a knee problem. Line-ups are usually confirmed about an hour before kick-off.
What does England need to win Group A3?
England must beat Spain. Spain finish top with a win or a draw.
Where can I watch Spain vs England?
The match is live on ITV1 in the UK at 19:45 GMT.
Who won the last Spain vs England match?
Spain won 3-2 at Wembley on September 26, 2026.
Final Verdict: Spain vs England Prediction
Spain are the favourites, as their unbeaten run and a fit Yamal suggest. But their defence has let in goals, and England have the form and a prolific captain to score in Madrid. GlobalPredict expects an open game with goals at both ends.
Headline prediction: Spain to win or draw (1X)
Best supporting markets: Over 1.5 goals and Both Teams to Score: Yes
Correct score lean: Spain 2-1
More Spain vs England Resources
For the official fixtures and results, see the UEFA Nations League 2026/27 fixtures page
For more goals picks, see our Over 2.5 goals predictions and Over 1.5 goals predictions. For daily tips, visit the GlobalPredict home page.
Prediction Methodology
This prediction uses Nations League results, the Group A3 table as of Friday, November 13, match reports from both teams’ recent games, head-to-head results, and team news reported up to that date. Starting line-ups were not announced at the time of writing, and anything unconfirmed has been left out.
Please gamble responsibly. This preview is for information and entertainment only and is not a guarantee of any result. GlobalPredict does not accept or place bets. 18+ only. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. For support,
